Deal brings hope to Swat

Monday, February 23, 2009
by Khalid Munir

After one-and-a-half year of military operation, an initiative has been taken to bring lasting peace to Swat. For those away from Swat, it amounts to surrendering to the Taliban, but for the people of Swat this deal brings hope that normalcy may return to the valley. They would have welcomed anyone and any move to bring peace. Ironically, that was exactly the reason for the Taliban success in Afghanistan in 1995-96. For Swatis the deal has brought peace for the time being and they are content with it.

Lasting peace in Swat is a distant possibility. The government has placed all its eggs in Maulana Sufi Mohammad’s basket and the overwhelming reception he has received in Swat must have elevated the hopes of the government about his ability to deliver long-lasting peace. However, it is not that simple. Maulana Sufi Mohammad has entered Swat’s arena after nine long years. He left for Afghanistan to fight the Americans in 2001 and was arrested after his return to Pakistan. Swat’s worsening situation compelled the government to release him a couple of months back. He does not believe in violence. The Taliban could not have taken control of Mingora if a fraction of the crowd now cheering Sufi Mohammad had stood up to the militants.

This raises the question about the quantum of clout and influence of Maulana Sufi Mohammad. In 1994 he was pitched against the Pakistan Army, which follows rules, ethics and a code of conduct even against the enemy. Sufi and his men were Pakistanis. Now he has to deal with the Taliban, who are loosely knitted, never heard or bothered to follow the Geneva Convention and do not have a concept of right and wrong, because in their opinion whatever they think is right. Ironically, most of the people I have spoken to are optimistic about the success of the peace talks merely for the reason that Sufi Mohammad happens to be Fazlullah’s father-in-law. However, these people forget the fact that this relationship did not stop Fazlullah from going off on his own till now. Also, in Pakhtun culture, one’s father-in-law does not carry the same status as in other societies in Pakistan.

Leaving aside the relationship, what does Maulana Sufi Mohammad have to offer the Taliban? The Nizam-e-adl? Did anyone ever hear the Taliban demanding enforcement of Nizam-e-adl? This was never explicitly on their agenda, so why should they concede the power they have gained over the last two years for something they had never asked for? Sufi Mohammad will bring back a long list of impossible-to-implement demands from the Taliban and that is when things will start deteriorating again. And in any case, the government could have negotiated directly with the Taliban – if that indeed was the goal.

As far as Maulana Fazalullah is concerned, we are in the dark about certain basic things about his organisation. Is there a guarantee that his men will abide by whatever is eventually agreed upon? Also, the exact strength of his outfit remains unknown. What is the composition of the men under his command in terms of ethnicity and geographical origin? In rest of the NWFP, normally the Taliban operate in a group of 15 to 20 with a commander or amir. What I fear is that he may become another Maulana Ghazi of Lal Masjid, who as according to the media reports during the mosque’s siege wanted to leave the mosque but certain people in the mosque and the government did not let him finalise a deal.

Lastly, the government and Taliban must ensure the safety of Maulana Sufi Mohammad. With the involvement of so many foreign agencies and the dismay shown by a few countries, anything is possible. God forbid, any unfortunate incident may light an inferno which will be difficult to put out.

The writer is a retired lieutenant-colonel. Email: khalidmunirkhan @gmail.com

Source: http://thenews.jang.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=164111